ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) is very bullish on the Georgia Bulldogs entering the 2024 college football season. Georgia returns an immense amount of talent including star quarterback Carson Beck. The Bulldogs dominant most opponents in the trenches and that should be no different this fall.
Georgia faces a new landscape in the SEC this fall. The Bulldogs and the rest of the SEC welcome Oklahoma and Texas to the best conference in the nation. The SEC won’t have divisions in its new 16-team format. Additionally, the College Football Playoff will have 12 teams this year, which is a big chance from the four team playoff era.
What is FPI? “(FPI is a) measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season,” said ESPN. “FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations.”
The SEC has won four of the last five national championships and has 11 of the top 20 teams in the FPI rankings, including six teams in the top 10. The SEC is the best conference in the country and should have plenty of teams in make the expanded playoff this fall.
Here’s a look at SEC football power rankings according to ESPN’s FPI rankings .
16
Vanderbilt Commodores
Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
FPI ranking: No. 76
Projected win-loss record: 4.0-8.0
Vanderbilt has not won an SEC game since beating Florida in November 2022 and is the SEC’s weakest link by a large margin. The Commodores will have a tough time making a bowl game this year as FPI gives Vanderbilt just a 17.8% chance to win six games.
15
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
FPI ranking: No. 49
Projected win-loss record: 5.1-6.9
Expectations are modest for the Mississippi State Bulldogs in year one of the Jeff Lebby era. Bulldogs fans have some room for optimism after quarterback Blake Shapen, a Baylor transfer, threw for three touchdown passes in their spring game. Mississippi State is not expected to make a bowl game as FPI gives the Bulldogs a 40.0% chance to win six games.
14
Arkansas Razorbacks
(Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)
FPI ranking: No. 44
Projected win-loss record: 5.5-6.5
Arkansas Razorbacks head coach Sam Pittman needs a solid season to keep his job. The Razorbacks are only given a 48.4% chance to win six games this year. Pittman Boise State transfer quarterback Taylen Green, who is projected to start for Arkansas, had a strong performance in the Razorbacks’ spring game.
Get more Arkansas news, analysis and opinions on Razorbacks Wire
13
Kentucky Wildcats
The Courier-Journal
FPI ranking: No. 34
Projected win-loss record: 6.0-6.0
ESPN’s FPI is pretty low on Kentucky. The Wildcats should be able to churn out seven wins this year. Georgia transfer quarterback Brock Vandagriff could be a star for the Wildcats this fall. FPI gives Kentucky a 61.4% chance to win six games. Missing a bowl game would be a big disappointment for the Wildcats.
UK Wildcats Wire
12
South Carolina Gameco*cks
Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports Kentucky
FPI ranking: No. 33
Projected win-loss record: 6.0-6.0
We think FPI is a little too confident in South Carolina. We envision the Gameco*cks struggling offensively under projected starting quarterback LaNorris Sellers. The Gameco*cks will have a limited ceiling if their offense can’t get going.
11
Florida Gators
Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports
FPI ranking: No. 20
Projected win-loss record: 5.9-6.1
The Gators play one of the toughest schedule in the country. In fact, FPI gives Florida only a 58.2% chance to win at least six games despite being its No. 20 team in the nation. Florida has the talent to compete against teams on its brutal schedule, but most be willing to stick together after a few tough losses if the Gators are going to make any noise in the SEC.
Get more Florida news, analysis and opinions on Gators Wire
10
Auburn Tigers
John Reed-USA TODAY Sports
FPI ranking: No. 19
Projected win-loss record: 7.2-4.9
The Auburn Tigers get a lot of respect from ESPN’s FPI. We think FPI is overrating the Tigers. FPI gives Auburn a 13.5% chance to make the playoff. We don’t see that happening unless Quarterback Payton Thorne makes some massive strides in year two at Auburn.
Get more Auburn news, analysis and opinions on Auburn Wire
9
Ole Miss Rebels
Photo by Justin Ford/Getty Images)
FPI ranking: No. 16
Projected win-loss record: 7.9-4.2
ESPN’s FPI is shockingly low on Ole Miss, who landed the top transfer class in the SEC. The Rebels and quarterback Jaxson Dart are ready to make a playoff run despite what FPI says. FPI does give Ole Miss a 20.7% chance to make the playoff, but we’d be surprised if the Rebels are ranked this low in any other preseason poll.
8
Texas A&M Aggies
Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
FPI ranking: No. 14
Projected win-loss record: 7.6-4.5
Quarterback Conner Weigman, who missed most of last season due to injury, is expected to lead a talented Texas A&M team. The Aggies will look to finally meet high preseason expectations in the first year under head coach Mike Elko. FPI gives the Aggies a 21.0% chance to make the playoff.
Get more Texas A&M news, analysis and opinions on Aggies Wire
7
LSU Tigers
John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
FPI ranking: No. 13
Projected win-loss record: 7.9-4.2
If the 2024 LSU team can improve defensively, then we think the Tigers could make a playoff run. FPI gives LSU a 25.3% chance to make the playoff. LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier looks to be the Tigers’ next great quarterback.
LSU Wire
6
Missouri Tigers
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
FPI ranking: No. 10
Projected win-loss record: 9.0-3.2
We think Missouri deserves to have some preseason love. The Tigers, who are coming off a 11-2 season, return quarterback Brady Cook and wide receiver Luther Burden. Missouri has the fourth-best odds (37.3%) to make the playoff of any SEC team according to FPI.
5
Tennessee Volunteers
The Knoxville News-Sentinel
FPI ranking: No. 9
Projected win-loss record: 8.6-3.5
Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava showed promise at the end of last season. We think that the Volunteers return a lot of talent and could make a playoff run, but don’t see Tennessee as a preseason top-10 team. FPI gives Tennessee a 36.9% chance to make the playoff, which seems a little bit rich.
Get more Tennessee news, analysis and opinions on Vols Wire
4
Oklahoma Sooners
Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports
FPI ranking: No. 8
Projected win-loss record: 8.2-3.9
FPI high expectations for Oklahoma and we have to disagree with ranking the Sooners in the top-10. Oklahoma lost starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel to the transfer portal after a 10-3 season last year. New projected starting quarterback Jackson Arnold has a significant amount of potential, but we don’t think the Sooners should be ranked over SEC foes like Missouri and Ole Miss.
Get more Oklahoma news, analysis and opinions on Sooners Wire
3
Alabama Crimson Tide
Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports
FPI ranking: No. 5
Projected win-loss record: 9.3-3.0
As usual, Alabama has no shortage of talent. Quarterback Jalen Milroe could be the SEC’s top quarterback. Milroe is a great rusher, but needs to improve on finding his second and third reads. Alabama should compete for an SEC championship berth in the first year of the post-Nick Saban era. It is shocking to see the Crimson Tide projected to have three losses.
Alabama has a 57.2% chance to make the playoff and a 14.4% chance to win the SEC according to FPI.
Get more Alabama news, analysis and opinions on Roll Tide Wire
2
Texas Longhorns
Syndication: Austin American-Statesman
FPI ranking: No. 3
Projected win-loss record: 10.0-2.4
Texas is ranked behind only Oregon and Georgia. The Longhorns have a 11.4% chance of winning a national championship and a 67.8% chance of making the playoff according to FPI. Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers will play behind one of the top offensive lines in the country and has an elite new receiving target in Alabama transfer Isaiah Bond.
Get more Texas news, analysis and opinions on Longhorns Wire
1
Georgia Bulldogs
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
FPI ranking: No. 1
Projected win-loss record: 10.3-2.1
FPI loves Georgia. FPI gives the Dawgs a 32.8% chance to win the SEC, a 79.1% chance to make the playoff and a 21.0% chance to win a national title. No team has a higher chance to win a national championship or to make the playoff.
Georgia football quarterback Carson Beck is a projected first-round pick in the 2025 NFL draft and is expected to lead one of the best offenses in the country. Georgia has a tough schedule with games at Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss.
